My interest in the first world war got rekindled in the last few weeks. I had read the Sleepwalkers: How Europe went to war in 1914 (which I highly recommend) a few years ago. Recently, I started watching BBC's 10 part documentary on the first world war. I was thinking about this contagious stretch of territory from the Baltic Sea to the Adriatic, Aegean and Black Sea, sandwiched between the larger (and stronger) Germany and Russia, that houses around 180 million people today. Except for a brief period under the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth (16th to 18th century), the fate of this land and its people seems to be to stay under the shadow of one or more empires or major powers. The 20th century seems to have been particularly brutal for each of these countries. Because of their fractured political history, many of these countries have been a tinderbox of ethnicities that have erupted from time to time. They have also, in some form or another been victims of the two biggest catastrophes of the 20th century: Nazism and communism. Many of these countries, actively or passively, participated in the Holocaust and ethnic cleansing of Jews during the second world war.
This post briefly examines the 100 year history of each of these countries, from 1901 to 2001.
Poland (2020: population 38 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $35,651). In 1901, Poland did not exist as a sovereign state. Its territories were divided between Germany, Russia, and Austria-Hungary. During the first world war, Poland was a major theater, when Russia attacked Germany, and later when Russia was beaten back after the battle of Tannenberg. After the treaty of Brest-Litovsk that the new Bolshevik government signed with the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Turkey, and Bulgaria), Russia ceded the land it controlled in Poland, including Warsaw, to the Central powers. And, after the defeat of the Central powers, an independent republic of Poland was created. That lasted 20 years, until Nazi Germany started the second world war by attacking and occupying western Poland, and Soviet Union, as part of the secret Molotov-Ribbentrop plan, occupied eastern Poland. In the second world war, Poland lost 6 million people, almost one-sixth of its pre-war population; including 3 million Polish Jews.
After the Soviet victory and occupation, a new Poland, with a communist government was installed, with its borders moved westwards. The East Prussian city of Koenigsberg was renamed Kaliningrad and still remains under Russian control. The Free City of Danzig became part of Poland again as Gdansk. The Gdansk shipyard was the birthplace of the Solidarity movement that played a role in the demise of communism. Today, Poland is part of NATO (joined in 1999) as well as the European Union (joined in 2004).
Czechia (2020: population 11 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $40,428) In 1901, what is today's Czechia was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. After the defeat and break-up of Austria-Hungary, an independent Czechoslovakia, comprised of Bohemia (where Prague is), Moravia-Silesia (Brno), parts of older Hungarian kingdom (Slovakia and Carpathian Ruthenia) was formed. It was a multi-ethnic unitary state with Czech, Slovak, Polish, German, Hungarian, Ukrainian, and Romanian speaking people. So, ethnic tensions were a feature of the republic. In 1938, as part of the Munich agreement, without involving Czechoslovakia, Britain and France allowed the German speaking Sudetenland region of Bohemia to be merged with Nazi Germany. After that, a part of the Slovak territory was ceded to Hungary. In 1939, Nazi Germany occupied what remained of Bohemia. A Slovak state declared independence, and Hungary occupied Carpathia. The Red Army occupied Czechoslovakia in 1945, and the German residents were expelled. A communist government was put in power 1948. Czechoslovakia was invaded by the Soviets in 1968 during the Prague Spring reforms and protests. The communist party rule collapsed in 1989, and Vaclav Havel became president. In 1992, Slovakia broke up to become an independent republic. Today, Czechia is part of NATO (joined in 1999) as well as the European Union (joined in 2004).
Slovakia (2020: population 5.5 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $32,616) Slovakia too, started the 20th century as part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The common Czechoslovak history is covered in the earlier section. The main difference between the Czech portion and the Slovak portion is that the Slovak portion was under Hungary, in the Austro-Hungarian dual monarchy; and got less autonomy. Slovakia had been part of the kingdom of Hungary for almost 1000 years, even through the Ottoman domination of Hungary. After the first World War, Slovakia was incorporated in the independent Czechoslovakia. Between 1939-1945 a Nazi puppet Slovak state was established, which collapsed as the Red Army invaded. Soon after the communist rule in Czechoslovakia collapsed in 1989, the Slovak republic declared its independence in 1992. Today, Slovakia is part of NATO (joined in 1999) as well as the European Union (joined in 2004). It adopted the Euro as its currency in 2009.
Hungary (2020: population 10 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $31,578) In 1901, Hungary was part of the dual Austro-Hungarian monarchy. Austria-Hungary was established as part of a compromise signed in 1867 that restored the sovereignty of the former kingdom of Hungary. The kingdom contained Transylvania which is now part of Romania. This union was dissolved in 1918 after Austria-Hungary lost the war. Between 1918-20, as part of the post-war peace treaty and subsequent wars in Romania, Czechoslovakia, and Serbia, the kingdom of Hungary lost 72% of its territory. After that, Hungary gradually drifted towards Germany and Italy internationally, and towards anti-semitism domestically. During the second world war, Hungary was part of the Axis powers (Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy), and temporarily regained some of its lost territories by invading Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. German troops occupied Hungary in 1944, but they were driven out by the advancing Soviet troops in 1945. After that, Hungary became a communist state. In 1990, as communism was collapsing in Eastern Europe, Hungary transitioned to a democratic form of government. Today, Hungary is part of NATO (joined in 1999) as well as the European Union (joined in 2004).
Romania (2020: population 20 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $24,000 est.) In 1901, the kingdom of Romania was a newly independent kingdom formed through the personal union of the principalities of Wallachia and Moldavia. Romania's world war history is a story of swinging loyalties. Although Romania was secretly allied with Germany and Austria-Hungary, it stayed neutral in the first world war until the Entente (France and Britain) promised them territory. During and after the first world war, Romania gained territories from Austria-Hungary (Transylvania, that already had ethnic Romanians, and Bukovina) and Russia (Bessarabia: part of modern day Moldova and Ukraine). The new territories had German, Russian, Hungarian, Bulgarian, and Ukrainian minorities, which led to flare-ups in the 1920s as well as the loss of northern Transylvania to Hungary. By the late 1930s, King Carol II declared a royal dictatorship. During the second world war, Romania wanted to stay on the winning side. It started neutral, but then lost Bessarabia to the Soviet Union in 1940. When Nazi Germany attacked the Soviet Union, the Romanians joined the Nazis and went as far as Stalingrad with the invading Nazis. But when the Soviets attacked in 1944, King Michael I led a successful coup and aligned with the Soviets. The Romanians then marched with the Soviets and recovered the part of Transylvania that they had lost to Hungary. But it lost its Moldovan territories to the Soviet Union. Romania became a communist country following the Soviet occupation, and it stayed that way until Nicolae Ceaușescu was overthrown and executed in 1989. Today, Romania is part of NATO (joined in 2004) as well as the European Union (joined in 2007).
Moldova (2020: population 3.5 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $5,700) In 1901, the current territory of Moldova was divided between the Kingdom of Romania and Russia. After the first world war, some of the Russian parts went to Romania that the Soviet Union later regained and incorporated into the Moldovian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, inside Ukraine SSR. After 1940, it incorporated Bessarabia into Moldavia and created the Moldovian SSR. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moldova declared independence in 1991. A separatist movement in Transnistria controls a tiny strip of land, and is an unrecognized but a defacto independent republic inside Moldova. Moldova is not a member of NATO or the European Union.
Ukraine (2020: population 42 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $10,130) In 1901, today's Ukriane was divided between Austria-Hungary (Galicia, administered by Austria) and the Russian Empire. Kiev, the capital was of Ukraine had been a part of Russia since 1667. Ukrainians fought on both sides in the first world war. In the aftermath of the Russian Revolution and the end of the first world war, between the end of 1918 and August 1920, Kiev, the capital, changed hands sixteen times. From 1921 to 1991, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union as Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, except for a period of two years between 1941-1943 when it was under Nazi occupation. In 1954, as a sign of goodwill, the former Khanate of Crimea (that was part of Russia since 1783) was transferred to the Ukrainian SSR. In 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became independent. Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014, and since then, the eastern part of Ukraine has been held by pro-Russian separatists. Ukraine, as a country, is emotionally split between the pro-EU west and the pro-Russia east. As of 2020, Ukraine is the poorest country in Europe, along with Moldova.
Bulgaria (2020: population 7 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $22,304) In 1901, Bulgaria was an autonomous principality within the Ottoman Empire. In 1908, Bulgaria declared full independence from the Ottoman Turks. It was part of the Balkan League (along with Greece, Serbia, and Montenegro) that defeated the Ottoman empire in the first Balkan war of 1912-13. However, dissatisfied with its share of its spoils, it declared war on Greece and Serbia again in 1913, starting the second Balkan War, which resulted in loss of territory. In the first World War, Bulgaria started neutral, but later sided with the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Turkey) and had initial victories over Serbia and Macedonia. However, by the end of the war, it was not able to hold on to any of the territories, and suffered a national catastrophe for the second time in five years, including paying war reparations. Between 1919 and 1941, Bulgaria was politically unstable, with coups, successful and unsuccessful assassinations of its leaders. In the Second World War, Bulgaria started out neutral, but later joined the Axis powers in 1941. As the war progressed, Bulgaria occupied parts of Greece, Serbia, and Macedonia. But when Nazi Germany declared war on the Soviet Union in June 1941, Bulgaria didn't, and tried to stay away from active conflict with the Soviet Union. By 1944, when it was clear that the Nazis were losing, Bulgaria first declared neutrality, and then under Soviet pressure, declared war on Germany. This created a situation where Bulgaria was simultaneously at war with all four major belligerents: Germany, UK, US, and USSR. At the end of the second world war, Bulgaria was occupied by the Soviets and a communist regime was installed. In 1990, Bulgaria transitioned to parliamentary democracy. Today, Bulgaria is part of NATO (joined in 2004) as well as the European Union (joined in 2007).
Serbia (2020: population 7 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $17,617) In 1901, the newly independent Kingdom of Serbia was looking at ways to get ethnic Serbians under both the Ottoman Turk and the Austro-Hungarian empire in its fold. In the treaty the recognized Serbia's formal independence from Ottoman rule, in 1878, Serbia was explicitly prohibit from doing so, when Bosnia-Herzegovina was put under Austria-Hungary. This would eventually lead to the spark that would start the first world war. In the Balkan Wars of 1912-13, Serbia gained additional Ottoman territory, and also became a larger threat to Austria-Hungary, because it became an anchor for the unification of the Serbs and other southern Slavs in Austria-Hungary. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria on 28 June 1914 in Sarajevo by Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian Serb nationalist led Austria to declare war on Serbia, and the inter-dependent alliances flared up into the first world war. Serbia suffered major losses in the war, including losing more than half its Army. But as Austria-Hungary collapsed by the end of the war, a new Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes was formed in 1918 by merging Serbia with the Austro-Hungarian states of Croatia and Slovenia. This was officially named the Kingdom of Yugoslavia in 1929, under the personal dictatorship of King Alexander I. The alliance of the Serbs and the Croats were always uneasy, with Serbia vying for an upper hand and centralization, and the Croats seeking more autonomy. In the second world war, Yugoslavia was invaded by the Axis powers, and a rump Serbian territory was placed under the military occupation of the German Wehrmacht. Communist partisans led by Josip Broz Tito regained Yugoslavia by 1945, and a one-party communist state was established. Tito ruled until 1980, but after his death and the collapse of communism, Yugoslavia broke up descended into civil war along the old ethnic lines. In 2008, the ethnic Albanian majority area of Kosovo declared its independence, although Serbia (and Russia) have not recognized it. Serbia is not yet a member of NATO or the European Union.
Croatia (2020: population 4 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $24,100 est) In 1901, Croatia was part of Austria-Hungary, governed by the Kingdom of Hungary, as part of the Croatian–Hungarian Settlement of 1868. Croats and Serbs speak a mutually understandable language, but Croatian is written in the Latin script while Serbian is written in the Cyrillic script. This is very similar to the story of Hindi and Urdu: the (almost) same language written with two different scripts. Also, Croatians are Catholic and Serbians are Orthodox Christians. After the breakup of Austria-Hungary in 1918, Croatia joined with Slovenia and Serbia to build what would become Yugoslavia. In the second world war, when Yugoslavia was occupied by the Axis powers, a Nazi backed independent Croatia was setup that collapsed before the end of the war. It then became part of the communist ruled Yugoslavia, which lasted until 1991. Croatia declared independence in 1991 as Yugoslavia broke up into a civil war that lasted until 1995 for Croatia. Today, Croatia is a member of NATO (since 2009) and the European Union (since 2013).
Bosnia and Herzegovina (2020: population 3.3 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $11,400 est). In 1901, Bosnia-Herzegovina was ruled by Austria-Hungary, as part of the 1878 peace treaty following the Russo-Turkish War. It was officially considered part of the Ottoman-Turk Empire, although it was de-facto governed by Austria-Hungary. The people were Bosnian Muslims (still loyal to the Ottomans), Orthodox Serbs (sympathetic to Serbia), and Catholic Croats. In 1908, Austria-Hungary formally annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina, which was recognized by Serbia, Russia, and the Ottomans. On 28 June 1914, the assassination of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, in Sarajevo (the capital of Bosnia-Herzegovina), by a member of a secret Serbian-supported movement, Young Bosnia sparked the first world war. After the war, Bosnia joined the union that would eventually become the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. In the second world war, when Yugoslavia was occupied by the Nazis, Bosnia was ceded to the independent state of Croatia. After the second world war, it became part of communist Yugoslavia. After Yugoslavia collapsed, Bosnia-Herzegovina declared independence in 1992, which was opposed by the Bosnia Serbs, and that started the Bosnian war (1992-1995) between the Bosniak Muslims, Croats, and ethnic Serbs. The conflict ended in December 1995 when the parties signed the Dayton Agreement and they agreed to have the peace treaty enforced by a NATO-led peacekeeping force. Bosnia is not a member of NATO or the EU, although it has applied for membership of both.
Slovenia (2020: population 2 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $40,344). In 1901, today's Slovenia was part of Austria-Hungary. After the first world war, it became part of the kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes that eventually became the kingdom of Yugoslavia. During the second world war, Slovenia was divided between Fascist Italy, Hungary, and the Nazi puppet state of Croatia. It got re-incorporated into Yugoslavia in 1945. After the fall of communism, Slovenia declared independence in 1991 and it succeeded in breaking out of Yugoslavia following a Ten-Day War. Today, Slovenia is a member of NATO (since 2004) and the European Union (since 2004). It adopted the Euro in 2007.
North Macedonia (2020: population 2 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $17,378) In 1901, today's North Macedonia was part of the Ottoman-Turk empire. After the Balkan Wars it was annexed into Serbia, and during the first world war, it was occupied by Bulgaria. After the end of the first world war, it became part of Yugoslavia. During the second world war, it was divided between Bulgaria and Fascist Italian occupied Albania. After the war, it was re-incorporated in Yugoslavia. Following the break-up of Yugoslavia, it declared independence in 1991, and it stayed relatively peaceful through the Yugoslav civil war, compared to neighboring Serbia, Kosovo, and Bosnia, in-spite of tensions between ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians. North Macedonia is a member of NATO (joined in 2020) and has begun talks to join the European Union.
Montenegro (2020: population 600,000, per capita GDP (PPP) $1,977) In 1901, Montenegro was an independent principality that became a Kingdom in 1910. During the first world war, Montenegro was occupied by Austria-Hungary between 1916-18. After the war, it joined the union that would become Yugoslavia. During the second world war, Fascist Italy occupied it. After the second world war, it joined Yugoslavia again. During the Yugoslavian civil war, it stayed aligned with Serbia. In 2006, following a referendum, it declared independence. Montenegro is part of NATO (joined in 2017) but not a member of the European Union.
Albania (2020: population 3 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $14,866) In 1901, Albania was part of the Ottoman-Turk empire. In 1912, Albania declared independence that eventually established the Principality of Albania in 1914. The first world war kept Albania under political confusion, with neighboring Italy, Greece, and Serbia claiming and occupying territory. Even after the first world war, Yugoslavia and Italy had claims on Albanian territory. In 1925, it became a protectorate of Italy. During the second world war, it was occupied by Fascist Italy, and later by Nazi Germany. After 1944, it become a communist dictatorship that eventually transitioned into a democratic republic in 1992. Albania is a member of NATO (since 2009), but not a member of the European Union.
Greece (2020: population 11 million, per capita GDP (PPP) $30,357). Greece is considered a southern European nation, and not part of Eastern Europe. But its history is tied to the Balkans. In 1901, the Kingdom of Greece was a constitutional monarchy under the Danish George I, the grandfather of Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh and the brother-in-law of Edward VII. Greece had been involved with wars against Ottoman Turkey that continued until 1922. The monarchy was abolished in 1924, and restored in 1936. During the second world war, Greece fought against Italian invasion, but fell in 1941 when Nazi Germany dispatched troops. Greece was liberated by the Allies in 1944. It was ruled by a military junta between 1967–1974. Greece is a member of NATO (since 1952) and of the EU (since 1981). It adopted the Euro in 2001.
Baltic states: Latvia (2020 pop: 2 million, GDP per capita: $27,300 est), Lithuania (2020 pop: 3 million, GDP per capita $38,751), Estonia (2020 pop: 1.3 million, GDP per capita $37,606). In 1901, all the Baltic states were part of the Russian Empire. They declared independence from Russia after the 1917 Bolshevik revolution, but by 1940, the Soviets had reconquered the Baltic states. They declared their independence again after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. All three countries are members of the EU and NATO since 2004. Estonia adopted the Euro in 2011, Latvia in 2014, and Lithuania in 2015.
This was a very short summary of the hundred years of the "land between the greater powers". It is very hard to predict what the next hundred years will mean for the region. Russia would definitely want its empire back, in some form or another. Given Russia's long memory of attacks by the French (1812) and the Germans (1914, 1941), there is very little chance of having long-term peace with the eastward expanding European Union and NATO. As the Yugoslav civil war has shown, long-term peace still needs the involvement the United States, (through NATO) but it is unclear if the US has the appetite to serve as the peacekeeper forever. The European Union can serve as a unifying common market and a monetary union, but a political, fiscal, or military union is a distant dream, and perhaps undesirable. The whole region is so fractured, with memories of ethnic and religious conflicts going back to thousands of years, it is inconceivable that there will be any thing other than dozens of nationalities and ethnicities trying to coexist. The closest stable model is that of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, but it is very hard to build a stable multi-ethic state in this region.
I have written this more as my notes to help me understand the 20th century history of Eastern Europe and not as an academic paper. If there are errors in the narrative, or my understanding, please leave a comment and I will correct it.
